HUGE War Between Long and Short WHALES!
AlphaDrop
3 months ago
The summaries and transcripts on this page are generated with AI technology and may not perfectly represent the content of the video. Please use the information as a guide only.
Executive Summary
Alright, so this video dives deep into the wild market action where huge whales are duking it out. There's this "hyperliquid insider" who put on a massive Bitcoin short, prompting a coordinated effort by other big players to hunt him down and liquidate him. The main message is to be cautious of these whale games, which often prey on retail fear, and to stick to your trading strategy amidst this volatility, while also looking ahead to market drivers like the FOMC meeting and the upcoming release of their own Airdrop farming app.
Here are the key points and details discussed:
The Whale War:
- Things are getting really crazy with a "HUGE War Between Long and Short WHALES!", which they also call "bulls versus hyperliquid insiders".
- This drama unfolded while Asia was asleep.
- A specific "hyperliquid insider" opened a very large short position on Bitcoin, reportedly targeting around $69k-$70k.
- Immediately, a group of major whales, including Justin Sun and CBB (from Binance), reportedly teamed up specifically to "hunt him down" and liquidate his position.
- CBB even tweeted, openly asking for other large players ("seven figs size only") to DM him to join the team effort to "fuck him over" and liquidate the insider, expressing a desire for "no more fud going on in BTC". This highlights just how big and public this "game" between whales has become.
- After the counter-attack began, the insider added more collateral to his position.
- The insider also cancelled some orders and potentially was selling on Coinbase at the same time, suggesting they might be playing on multiple venues.
- Ultimately, the insider closed their ETH short but kept the BTC short open, which was reportedly moving against them ("creeping towards his entrance").
Warning Against Whale Tactics and FUD:
- They feel these "hyperliquid insiders" are deliberately targeting the fear of retail traders.
- Just because someone has a large public position on a platform like Hyperliquid doesn't mean it's their only position; they likely have funds elsewhere (like potentially on Coinbase in this case).
- This specific tactic (a big public short followed by a dump) worked the first two times this particular insider allegedly tried it, but the third time it didn't play out as easily.
- They use the "Fool me three times" analogy, suggesting it's now obvious these are basic tactics attempting to exploit retail fear.
- They strongly warn people not to fall for these tricks or follow these whale trades, especially not with their full portfolio.
- A whale can simply close their large position for a small percentage gain (which translates to millions for them), while retail traders who followed them could be trapped and liquidated.
Market Psychology and Trading Strategy:
- They describe the current market as "hunting season" and a "playground, aka war zone," between insiders and people on Crypto Twitter (CT).
- It's perceived as very difficult to play swing trades right now because of "douchebag whales trying to wick out retail orders."
- Sticking to a consistent strategy (like their "Orb" strategy, mentioned briefly but not detailed) is how they mitigate downside risk in this environment.
- Mastering trading psychology is highlighted as the key challenge, even if you know how to trade.
- They are personally working on their psychology by risking only 1% per trade and journaling their trades, finding it "so fucking good" for discipline.
A Personal Trading Example (S Coin):
- One of the presenters shared a recent short trade on a coin called 'S'.
- They took the trade because it looked like a setup that had worked successfully before on another coin ('Fartcoin').
- The trade on 'S' resulted in a stop-out (a loss).
- Upon journaling the trade, they identified the mistake: not waiting for confirmation and trading near a critical key level (50 cents for 'S') that had historically acted as strong support or resistance.
- They note that 'S' might see a run only if ETH performs well, as they see a strong correlation between robust altcoins and ETH's price action.
ETH Price Outlook:
- It's important to look at the weekly candle close every Monday to gauge the overall trend.
- ETH just had three consecutive red weekly candles, with the lowest dump last week reaching $1753.
- They compare this pattern to a similar instance of three red weeks in July/August, which was followed by a relief bounce and consolidation before a larger breakout.
- On the 4-hour chart, ETH is currently trading sideways.
- They identify a very strong support level at the purple line, which represents the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the January 2023 swing low (around $1820-ish).
- The area around the 0.786 seems to be getting a good reaction so far.
- They suggest any break below the 0.786 ($1820-ish) could just be a "deviation" (a temporary dip below support), but preparing for the possibility of this dip is wise.
- They believe that if the bull market is to continue, the current price level near the 0.786 Fibonacci might represent the "cheapest that you can get ETH for" right now (stated as a personal opinion, not financial advice).
BTC Price Outlook:
- Unlike ETH, Bitcoin's weekly candle last week closed green, suggesting ETH is lagging behind BTC slightly.
- Regarding whether BTC will go to $69k (the insider's target) or lower: no one knows for sure, but lower is "definitely a possibility".
- This possibility exists because the Fibonacci golden pocket drawn from the macro swing low to the all-time high is somewhere between $50k and $53k.
- A dip to the 50-53k range would be "completely normal for BTC" when zooming out on the chart.
Upcoming FOMC Meeting:
- A significant macro event is the FOMC meeting, scheduled for "in two days".
- At this specific meeting, a rate cut is not expected; the markets are only pricing in a very modest 5% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, and this lack of expected cut is already reflected in the crypto market's slow movement.
- The meeting will include updated economic projections and the "dot plot" (which shows policymakers' future rate expectations), but Jerome Powell often downplays their significance.
- Significant changes in these projections are unlikely unless there are substantial shifts in economic conditions.
- Inflation is stable but showing signs of softening, and the impact of tariffs/trade policies is also a factor they monitor.
- Market reactions are expected to remain cautious with slow, sideways movement, mirroring the current state. The Fed will maintain its current stance while keeping options open for future adjustments based on incoming data.
- Looking at the FedWatch tool, potential rate cuts are forecasted further out, like May 2025 (27.2% chance) or even an aggressive cut in June 2024 (18.6% chance).
- The possibility of future rate cuts (potentially priced in over the next couple of months leading up to June) could lead to a "relief bounce for ETH and BTC on the high timeframe." This aligns with the hopeful outlook for the weekly candle patterns.
Upcoming Airdrop App:
- Exciting news: they are releasing their own Airdrop app "tomorrow".
- The app is designed to incorporate a lot of user feedback (reflecting about 60-70% of suggestions).
- It aims to help users not just track their Airdrop checklists but also compound their research into future projects.
- The core goal is to help users evaluate Airdrop farming with a clear return-on-investment mindset: "how much time will I spend in order to get how much money?".
- It will make it easy to see what projects you are farming and decide if they are "worth your time".
- They confirm the app will be free for users to use initially, and they will figure out monetization later.
Transcript
Transcript
Welcome to AlphaDrop. My name is Ron. Martin here. And today, things are going very crazy between longs and shorts. And I think in other words as well, bulls versus hyperliquid insiders. Quote-unquote insiders. It's crazy. This has all been happening when Asia was asleep. And this morning when we woke up and we looked at CT, everything was talking about, everyone was talking about this hyperliquid insider doing a very big short again, right? Targeting around 69, 70k price for BTC. So what's going on here? Let's see. Things went really crazy. Like several, I think hours after he has his position opened on hyperliquid, there was apparently a whole group of whales like Justin Sun, CBB, teaming up to just hunt him down. Wow. Crazy. To liquidate him. And this is confirmed here, right? CBB is tweeting, saying that, hey, if you're willing to hunt this dude with size, drop a DM, right? We're setting a team right now. We're gonna fuck him over, right? We're gonna liquidate his ass. No more fud going on in BTC. And he's saying seven figs size only. In DM, please. I was wondering why we weren't DMed. And then I saw, oh, okay. All right. Let the big boys play. Let the big boys play. This is their game. This is their game. Only seven figs allowed here. So crazy. Ergonomic here was updating tweet by tweet. After they teamed up, he added more collateral. And then he noticed that the momentum was dying. So he canceled his orders. And this is also interesting. It looks like there was a large amount of sales happening on Coinbase. So it's quite likely maybe he's doing it on the other side. Right. So all in all, after everything blew over, he closed his East short. But he still has his BTC short open right now. But I think it is still down. It's like crawling, creeping, creeping towards his entrance. So this goes to show you that whenever you see news like these, you might feel FOMO or you might feel FUD or you might feel fear. Right. Because we know that from the first hyper liquid insider that did this sort of trade was when BTC was around 90K or 90-ish. And then he opened a short and it dumped. Right. It dumped. That first tactic worked. Then the second tactic, he did again. And then everyone on CT was talking about that wallet. And boom, it went. But the third time it happens, it's like that Jake Holdong. Right. Fool me one time, shame on you. Fool me twice, can't put the blame on you. Fool me three times, fuck the peace, sand, load the chop and let it rain on you. So it's obvious that these hyper liquid insiders are targeting the fear of retail. Just know that if they have that much position open on a public position, on a chain, right, hyper liquid, anyone can see this. You have to remember this might not be all of their money. They probably have even more somewhere outside. Like this data here shows us maybe potentially that guy has even more money on Coinbase and he's just causing some sort of FUD going on. So in this season, it's very difficult to play swings, especially with, you know, douchebag whales trying to wick out retail orders. So in the meantime, we're just doing, we're just sticking to Orb. That's how you, you know, mitigate yourself from the downside. So for today, we're trading Asia open, bullish breakout. So expected to be bullish for today, maybe potentially targeting 85 just because I was watching this last night right before I went to sleep. Huge wick. It went from 83 to 85 in one minute. It was a fat candle. So there could be potential buy side liquidity here can be taken up for today. And that is my target for today for BTC, for ETH as well. Yeah. So what do you back? Yeah. So that's a little bit about the Orb strategy. But back to the back to this hyper liquid insider whale. Yeah. What do you think about this guy? I mean, he opened a $332 million short on Bitcoin. And his first TP is at 69,420. His second TP, 58,664. I mean, his TP, his first TP is just, it sounds like such a major troll. 59,420. Yeah. Like, what do you think about this guy? Yeah. You see, Gio here says this is why hyper liquid needs a troll box. Troll box. So now I think. Is he just a big troll? Maybe. I don't know. He's creating some fear going on. I mean, he even changed his name to Tether Fudd, right? Yeah. So these sort of players are probably preying on the weak. So if you are still falling for these tricks, then you need to really get your market psychology in check. Okay. You don't fall for shit like this. Just because some insider whale opened a large short, you don't do the same thing, especially with full port, right? Especially when the trick has already been done more than three times, right? So they're using these basic tactics to see if they can, you know, take the market out or et cetera, et cetera. And even if they have their TP set to, you know, 69, 70K, what's to stop them from just closing their position? Yes. Exactly. Do 3% move. That's already like millions of dollars for them, right? Then what ends up happening for the poor people here, right? Someone here says, my question, the rest of us are poor. What do we do? Even if you were to follow his trades, you're done. You're trapped, right? The guy's already gone. So stick to a strategy. Always stick to a strategy. You guys know how to trade. All right. It's just the psychology part you don't have down. And I am going through that now where I'm handling my psychology by doing 1% risk and journaling trades. This is actually so fucking good for keeping your trading very, very disciplined. Case in point, last Friday, I tried to short S because we have buy side liquidity swept targeting untapped sell side liquidity here, which is in line with the POC. I got stopped out. And then I put this in my journal and say, what the hell is going on, right? Why could that be the case? Because I took this trade because it was very similar to what happened with Fartcoin. Where did it go? Fartcoin on Monday. Wait. Thursday. Yeah, here. All right. Let me show you. It was the same exact model. Okay. It was already over. But yeah, the indicator shifted. But during that time, buy side liquidity swept here. And then it plummeted towards the untapped sell side here. So this is very similar that happened to S at that time, which was forming that sweep. But the only difference is Fartcoin is still like in there's no like solid key level in terms of horizontal movement. You can see here. But for S, I think my mistake here was I was not waiting for confirmation. And more importantly, we were trading around a critical key level here at 50 cents for S. For many, many times, this acted as a very strong key level for S. You had the very big dump from here, but then a good reaction pump. And then dump, deviation, pump, deviation, dump, deviation, large one, breakthrough, retest, support, pumped into $1. Then dumped again, here again, after the dump, small pump, dump, small retest, failure to hold, dump, deviation currently right now. And it looks like it could run only if ETH performs well still. I think there's a very strong correlation between the strong alts and ETH price performance. So how is ETH going to look like for the time being? Very important to look every Monday to look at how the weekly close happens. So this candle right here was last week's performance. We started $2,500, dumped all the way as low as $1,997. Was it actually? No. Ah. Ah, this candle. Sorry. This candle. Yes. We're currently in this green candle, which is so small, so tiny. We dumped to as low as $1,753. So three consecutive red week for ETH. Could potentially see green this week. But that is just copium. Let's just look at price action to determine, okay, where can ETH go? So on a 4-hour, still trading sideways here. If there's going to be a retrace, this purple line is a very, very strong support because this is our Fibonacci from the swing low drawn in January 2023. So we're in the 0.786. 0.786 seems to be good reaction from this zone. And as I've stated last week, any break below 0.786 level, which is 1820-ish, could be just a deviation after it forms. Potentially. Potentially. That could be the worst case if ETH were to break low here. Okay? So have a plan. Manage your risk very, very well, especially now because it's hunting season. This is actually a playground between, playground, aka war zone, between insiders and CT. So it's crazy. It's really, really crazy. And in the meantime, I think the big news to watch out for is the upcoming FOMC. It's in two days. In two days and 14 hours. It looks like they're not really going to cut rates. It's still going to be the same. But what else is there to look for in the upcoming FOMC? Let's see. Anything to watch out for? Okay, here. All right. So note rate cut expected. Markets pricing in only a modest 5% of a 25 basis point reduction, which is already reflecting in the crypto market. I don't know about the stock market equities. We're already seeing very slow sideway movements last week, specifically. Future rate cuts. While no immediate cuts are anticipated, there is a possibility of one or two cuts later in the year. So I'll show you that later. Potentially starting in June or July, depending on economic data and inflation trends. Economic projections and dot plot. The FOMC will release updated economic projections, including the dot plot, which provides insights into policymakers' expectations for future interest rates. However, Jerome Powell often downplays the significance of these projections. Potential changes in projections. There might be adjustments to the projections based on recent economic data. But significant changes are unlikely unless there are substantial shifts in economic conditions. FOMC will closely monitor inflation, which is stable but shows signs of softening. Okay, that might be okay. Okay. The impact of tariffs and trade policies on inflation and economic growth will be a factor in future decisions. Market reactions. Without an immediate rate cut savings and CD rates are unlikely to change significantly in the short term, which is actually already pricing in right now, right? We're seeing just very slow movement. Overall, the meeting is expected to be cautious with the Fed maintaining its current stance while keeping options open for future adjustments based on incoming data. Okay, we go back to FedWatch. The potential rate cut could be forecasting 27.2% in May 2025. But the crazy thing here is on June 18, there's 18.6% to cut even aggressively. Okay. So I think now is March. We got June. We got three months. This forecast could be priced in, let's say, in the next two months. So maybe with that being in play, we might see a relief bounce for ETH and BTC on the high timeframe that is. And this is sort of in line with how the weekly performance is doing for ETH. Where did the weekly go? Ah, here. Weekly. Right. We have three consecutive red candles. When was the last time we had three consecutive red candles? Was it in July and August? Then you had a mini relief bounce. Then you had consolidation here. Then you had the breakout towards 4K. That was one case. You had four red week here, but this was an all-time high. So we're in sort of a very similar situation as here for ETH. Right? It's very, very similar. Three consecutive red bar pattern. And the middle one had a big body close. Whereas the ending week had a big wick, which will be filled in the next coming week. So I think last week was that. We did have a big wick into our daily order block here. Showing good reaction so far. So a potential minor bounce could happen. Hopefully it will be a big bounce, you know? That would be nice. But we'll see how this goes. And for BTC as well. Let's see. How is it looking for BTC? Yeah. Same. But the only difference between this, last week's performance and ETH, we closed in the green for BTC. So I think ETH is lagging behind down a little bit. Okay? Creeping towards his entrance. All right. Let's answer some questions. How you guys doing? Mm-hmm. Step aside, boys. I'm a whale in my head. Says Brian Nunez. Yep. You know, manifest it in the internal first. Yes. Before the universe. Materializes. Exactly. Yes, sir. That's great. Bloomberg. How's it going? Yeah. I haven't seen your name in a while. Welcome back. Welcome back. Crypto213 says, is BTC still going to 69? No one knows, but it's definitely a possibility. I know you don't like to hear this answer, but why is it a possibility? Because if you just draw the fib from our macro swing low towards our all-time high, the golden pocket is somewhere between 50 to 53K. So it can dip as low as 50 to 53K. If you were to zoom out, right? Like this is completely normal for BTC. The only tricky thing here is the same thing for ETH. However, we've gone below already the golden pocket and into the 0.786. So if we were to continue this bull market, this is the cheapest that you can get ETH for. Now, financial advice, of course. This is just for me to track what's going on in the high time frame. So just prepare for this possibility. But in the meantime, no one knows. No one really knows. Okay? All right. Hey, how's it going? Hello, MDM. I'm Korn from Bangladesh, bro. Yes, sir. Bangladesh, that's what's up. All right. So we're going to end the stream. And tomorrow, exciting news, we're going to be releasing the Airdrop app. It's going to be really good. Michael has briefed us. Man, I think like 60 to 70% of our feedback has been reflected into the app. So it's going to be very, very exciting. It really is going to be so good in terms of not just tracking your Airdrop checklist, but also helping you to compound your research into projects in the future. So it's going to be nice. You're going to be a lot smarter. You're going to be approaching farming Airdrops with the thought of, hey, how much time will I spend in order to get how much money? Yeah. The whole goal, really, what we want the end user, you guys, to experience is, okay, let me just go over here and pick and choose what I like and make it sexy, make it nice, and make it very easy to understand. Yes. What are we getting into? I want to take a quick look at what I'm farming and then decide. Yeah. We have everything over there. You guys already know that we farm every single project. So when you get to this point, it just becomes like, is it worth my time? And so with this app, you're going to get exactly that. Yes. Crypto213 says, is it free? Yes. We've decided it'll be free. And then we'll see how to monetize it. I think you should have asked in the time being. But yes, it'll be free for you guys to use. Don't worry about it. Okay. All right. You guys know what to do. Smash up the like button. Subscribe to the channel.